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Task 5.2.1. Develop and improve tools

Task lead: Stefan Dullinger, VINCA, Vienna

Our main results on dispersal modelling are:

a) the development and implementation of migration models for plant species at landscape to regional scales (CATS and MIGCLIM);

b) the development and implementation of a software routine to upscale small resolution models to coarser spatial and temporal scales;

c) the development and implementation of software for fitting mechanistic wind and animal dispersal kernels.

Publications

Engler, R. & Guisan, A. 2009: MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate. Diversity & Distribution, 15: 590-601.

Smolik, M.G., Dullinger, S., Essl, F., Kleinbauer, I. Leitner, M., Peterseil, J., Stadler, L.-M. & Vogl, G. 2010: Integrating species distribution models and interacting particle systems to model the spread of an invasive plant. Journal of Biogeography 37: 411-422.

Dullinger, S., Hülber, K., Dirnböck, T., Ertl, S., Gattringer, A., Grabherr, G., Leitner, M. & Mang. T.: Patch configuration affects alpine plant distribution. Ecography, provisionally accepted.

Anderson, B. J., Akçakaya, H. R. Araújo, M.B., Fordham, D., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R., Thuiller, W., Brook, B. 2009. Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society London B. 276: 1415-1420.

Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. 2009. Individualistic vs. community modelling of species distributions under climate change. Ecography 32: 55-65. Baselga, A. & Araújo, M.B. Do community models fail to project community variation effectively? Journal of Biogeography. In press

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